Thursday, December 15, 2011

As the dust settles in Durban, South Africa, after a marathon round of stoppage-time talks last weekend, climate change observers are assessing the result. The jury is still out on whether to hail the outcome a victory from the land of political miracles or a spectacular missed opportunity.
The conference’s indubitable success was the decision of the United States, India and China – the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, responsible for 48.5% of the carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere every year – to embark in good faith on a process that will eventually result in a legal deal encompassing every country on earth. India had resisted the EU’s insistence on a “legally binding” contract, proposing instead a more ambiguous “legal outcome”. But an extraordinary eleventh-hour deal struck by two powerful women – European Union Commissioner Connie Hedegaard and India’s climate negotiator Jayanthi Nataraj – broke through an impasse that had made it all but certain Durban would be a toothless tiger.
The clincher was a verbal compromise that both parties could live with: “an agreed outcome with legal force”. But how legal is legal? The fact that the terms have yet to be worked out and that the agreement will not come into effect until 2020 has rung alarm bells. The world still faces the likelihood of a 3-4 degree rise in temperature – a scenario that could leave vast tracts of the planet uninhabitable, deforested and depopulated, according to the respected Tyndall Centre, unless drastic further measures are taken immediately.
In the meantime, the EU has agreed to a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol – the treaty that commits industrialised countries to stabilising their emissions of harmful greenhouse gases – which is set to begin immediately after the first commitment period expires in 2012 and to last for at least five years.
Clapping with one hand
Climate change specialists are clapping with one hand: as ACT Alliance climate change advisor Mattias Söderberg says, the targets for carbon emission cuts that countries will submit in May 2012 are likely to be far less ambitious than those of the first commitment period – and based on political expediency rather than the dictates of science.
Rather more promising was the decision to get the Green Climate Fund up and running next year. The fund aims to raise US $100bn by 2020 to enable developing countries to adapt to existing climate change and establish models of social and industrial progress that do not rely on high carbon consumption.
But if there was one message that cut through all the horsetrading on carbon emissions and the ornate nuances of this annual gabfest, it was the heartfelt pleas from those countries for whom destructive climate change is a daily reality, not some dystopian future – especially the negotiating blocs known as the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Least Developed Countries (LDC).
In one session, amid the flowery Victorian preambles and set-pieces that still characterise UN debates in 2011, the negotiator from Cape Verde delivered a poignant allegory. The real story of the sinking of the Titanic, he said, was that, just a short while before its tragic end, the great cruise ship had struck a small boat whose passengers were calling out desperately for help. Those on board the Titanic knew a collision was inevitable unless they acted, but the captain said that the engines were working too hard and the vessel could not be stopped. So the Titanic continued on its inexorable path, dispatching the little boat and its passengers to certain death. And then the Titanic hit an iceberg.
“That little boat is us”, he said, “the victim of the big countries of the world, the Titanics.” He pointed out that rising sea levels catalysed by climate change meant that many islands in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans – including the Cape Verde archipelago – would soon disappear: “If this meeting can do nothing for the islands of Africa, the LDCs, if we continue business as usual, we will face the same fate as Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. They are facing the end of history.” And, according to his parable, the developed world would soon follow.
His words chimed with ACT’s message to the COP in insisting that world representatives look at the human face of climate change by recognising the devastation it wreaks on the poorest people on earth. The message underpinned the alliance’s policy stance and its visual materials (see box below), which showed a range of people with the slogan ‘climate change kills me’.
